NFL Week 11 Picks, Upsets, Predictions
Week 11 of the 2013 NFL season features a trio of marquee games: in the 4 p.m. EST starts, the San Francisco 49ers travel to the New Orleans Saints. On Sunday Night Football, the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 8-1 Denver Broncos for AFC West supremacy. And Monday Night Football gives us an unexpected treat, as Tom Brady and the Patriots visit Cam Newton and the upstart Panthers.
Week 11 will be somewhat about redemption for us at SidelineMOB, as our Week 10 NFL picks were the worst of this 2013 season (7-7), after going a combined 21-5 over the previous two weeks. We’ll look to get back on the right track starting Thursday night, as the Colts and Titans clash in an AFC South battle.
If there’s one thing that holds true across many of our Week 11 picks, it’s the general lack of importance we place on home-field advantage. With the exception of Seattle, New Orleans and Kansas City, there aren’t many significant home-field advantages in the NFL this season – in fact, the Philadelphia Eagles are 0-4 at home and tied for 1st in the NFC East. Mirroring this trend, 7 of our 15 predicted winners this week are road teams.
No, we weren’t crazy enough to take the Vikings at Seattle this week. But we did pick more than one road upset this week – let’s see if you agree!
NFL Week 11 Picks: LOCK of the Week
SEATTLE (home) over Minnesota
NFL Week 11 Picks: UPSET of the Week
BALTIMORE (road) over Chicago
2013 NFL Week 11 picks and predictions
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, Thursday Night Football: The Colts are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss to the St. Louis Rams. How can you possibly have less momentum? Simple – you could be the Titans, who just gave up the first win to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jake Locker is officially on IR for the remainder of the season. Colts 27, Titans 17.
NY Jets at Buffalo Bills: The Jets signed Ed Reed after being cut by Houston this week. Coming off a bye, New York is 5-4 and in 6th place in the AFC playoff race. That being said, the Jets have lost all their even-numbered games this year, and this is Game #10. They’re also 1-3 on the road, and although the Bills haven’t looked good as of late, E.J. Manuel is in his second game back. Bills 26, Jets 19.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: The Ravens escaped with an OT victory over the Bengals last week – was that the good break Baltimore needed? Meanwhile, other than a win over Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, the Bears have lost their last 3 games against teams above .500 (Detroit, New Orleans, Detroit). Baltimore may be 4-5, but we like a road upset for Joe Flacco here. Ravens 24, Bears 23.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Two straight losses for the Bengals, who still lead the AFC North at 6-4. Amazingly, if the Browns win this game they’ll only be 1/2 game out of 1st in the division. But Cleveland has scored over 17 points on the road just once this year. That won’t happen in Week 11, and Cincy will avenge an early-season loss to the Browns. Bengals 25, Browns 13.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Will this be, at long last, the week that Philly wins a game at home? The Eagles are 0-4 at Lincoln Financial Field thus far in the 2013 NFL season. Meanwhile, the turn-around everyone expects from Washington hasn’t happened yet – at this point, will it? So who wins: the team that’s 0-4 at home, or the team that’s 1-4 on the road? Eagles 34, Redskins 32.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: What kind of upside-down NFL season are we dealing with when the Steelers are rarely favored at home? The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-3, and have a real opportunity to take a 2-game lead over the Packers this weekend. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, can’t run the ball or stop the run – look for Reggie Bush to out-quick the Steelers D. Lions 30, Steelers 20.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers won their first game of the season last week by defeating Miami on Monday Night Football. The Falcons are enduring a nightmarish season and, at 2-7, are just 1 game up on Tampa in the NFC South. Matty Ice and company have to win this game, don’t they?… Don’t they? We just can’t see Atlanta at 2-8, no matter how bad things are. Falcons 26, Buccaneers 16.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Like the Bucs, the Jaguars are trying to win their 2nd consecutive game at the expense of the Arizona Cardinals. Jacksonville will put up a good effort but this just isn’t a good matchup – a Cardinals D predicated on turnovers and a very big tight end named Rob Housler are too much for the Jags. Cardinals 31, Jaguars 16.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: If there’s one redeeming factor for a game involving the Raiders and no Arian Foster for Houston, it’s that we once again get to see Case Keenum chuck it all over the lot. And finally, Keenum will be rewarded with his first win as a starter. Texans 27, Raiders 17.
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: So, do we go with the solid team that chokes late, or the team in turmoil that has home field advantage? It’s a cross-country trip for San Diego, but that shouldn’t matter much with a 4:05 p.m. EST start. The Dolphins’ playoff hopes keep fading. Chargers 33, Dolphins 23.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: How great of a schedule do we have Week 11 when 49ers at Saints may be the third-best game of the weekend? The 49ers looked stilted on offense in a loss to Carolina last weekend; meanwhile, the Saints set an NFL record with 40 first downs against Dallas. This one’s just a matter of New Orleans being tough to beat in the Superdome. Saints 27, 49ers 23.
Green Bay Packers at NY Giants: So, do the Giants have to deal with Scott Tolzien or Matt Flynn? And, more importantly, does the answer to that question matter? The Packers can’t get Aaron Rodgers back soon enough. Meanwhile, the Giants climb to 4-6, somehow alive in the NFC East. Giants 26, Packers 20.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: It’s a Seahawks home game against a bad team. We’ll spare you the analysis. Seahawks 37, Vikings 17.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Sunday Night Football: The Broncos and Chiefs square off in a battle for 1st place in the AFC West – and, in all likelihood, Round 1 in the battle for the AFC’s #1 overall seed and home field advantage. Jamaal Charles will get his (mainly in the passing game), but if this 2-game set is split home-and-home (which we think will occur), then this game will belong to Peyton Manning and crew - unless, of course, Manning’s leg injury is worse than we think. Broncos 28, Chiefs 21.
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers, Monday Night Football: The Patriots are 7-2, coming off a bye, and their offense is beginning to hum. The Panthers are 6-3, have won 5 straight games, and have a scary-good defense that limited San Francisco to 9 points. Certain things are true about this game: the Panthers will lean heavily on the run, Rob Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare for Carolina, and since 2010, Tom Brady is 10-2 in the month of November. Patriots 21, Panthers 17.
WEEK 10 PICKS: 7-7
OVERALL 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD THRU WEEK 10: 97-50 (66.0%)
- BREAKING! Ed Reed Signs With the New York Jets! (thejetpress.com)
- Week 11 NFL Picks (sportsvibes.wordpress.com)
- NFL Picks, Week 11: The quick and dirty (fieldgulls.com)