Why Seahawks Won’t Repeat in 2014-15
The Seattle Seahawks will not win Super Bowl 49. You heard it here first.
We’re not saying the Seahawks will fall from grace. They’ll win 11+ games in the regular season, contend for the NFC West title, and sleepwalk their way to a top 3 defensive ranking. Russell Wilson will be efficient, Marshawn Lynch will be a beast, and the Legion of Boom will continue to constitute the best secondary in the NFL.
The 2014-15 Seattle Seahawks will be an excellent football team. But they’re not going to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. It doesn’t matter how much they have going for them, really – sometimes, the only thing bigger than talent, momentum and swagger is history.
And history is not on the Seahawks’ side.
Here are 5 reasons why Seattle will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions.
5 reasons the Seahawks won’t repeat in 2014-15
#1. Seattle has too many important free agents, and will lose several.
One of the side effects of a Super Bowl victory is that players feel entitled to more money. In Seattle’s case, things could get complicated quickly. Not only do the Seahawks have to concern themselves with re-signing players this year, but they have to keep an eye on 2015 – that’s when Russell Wilson’s rookie contract expires. And you know Wilson, already a Super Bowl winning QB, isn’t going to be cool with making under $700,000 a year anymore.
So who does Seattle re-sign, and who do they let go? The Seahawks may be forced to decide between Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. Also, re-signing Michael Bennett may be difficult unless multiple players (like Red Bryant) are willing to restructure their deals – which isn’t a lock to happen. A key figure to re-sign is right tackle Breno Giacomini – not a “sexy” name, but Seattle must address its offensive line moving forward.
Yes, the damage caused by free agency attrition will be minimized by how well Seattle drafts for need. But the rookie learning curve at most positions is still quite high in the NFL, and asking late-round picks to come in and contribute immediately in the absence of a player like Doug Baldwin or Michael Bennett is simply too much.
#2. Teams that win blowout Super Bowls generally don’t repeat.
There have been 8 “repeat” Super Bowl champions in NFL history. Of those 8 (and we’ll get to them in a minute), only two – the Green Bay Packers (Super Bowl I) and Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowl XXVII) won their first of back-to-back Super Bowl titles by more than 10 points. Green Bay won Super Bowl I 35-10 over Kansas City, and Dallas beat Buffalo 52-17 in Super Bowl XXVII.
The other 6 back-to-back Super Bowl champions began their “double” with modest wins – chronologically, by 7, 10, 4, 4, 7 and 3 points.
There have been 10 Super Bowls in which the winner defeated the loser by more than 25 points (including Super Bowl XLVIII). Of the previous 9 blowout winners, only 1 has even returned to the Super Bowl the following season – the 1992-93 and 1993-94 Dallas Cowboys.
#3. Teams rarely repeat west of the Mississippi River.
Yes, we’re citing geography in this argument. Super Bowl XLIX will be held in Glendale, Arizona – the 28th Super Bowl to be played west of the Mississippi River. And based on prior history, this isn’t good news for Seattle.
In the 27 previous Super Bowls played west of the Mississippi River, there have only been 3 games in which the previous year’s winner made a repeat appearance – Super Bowl VIII (Miami Dolphins), Super Bowl XIV (Pittsburgh Steelers), and Super Bowl XXIV (San Francisco 49ers). It’s been 24 years since an NFL franchise claimed back-to-back Super Bowl titles west of the Mississippi River, and if we’re taking history as our guide, Seattle has only an 11.1% chance (3-for-27) of making it back.
#4. Good Lawdddd, the schedule makers!
We’re not saying that Seattle couldn’t have reached the Super Bowl without home field advantage. But the 12th Man at Century Link Field has certain wreaked havoc on the opposition, to the tune of a 15-1 regular season record over the last 2 seasons. With the 49ers right over their shoulder as well as a rapidly improving NFC West, it’s imperative that the Seahawks win the NFC West instead of settling for a wild card in 2014-15.
But Seattle’s 2014-15 NFL schedule isn’t going to be pretty, especially on the road. There are, of course, the divisional road trips to San Francisco, Arizona and St. Louis. But there are also trips to the Eagles, Panthers, Chiefs and Chargers in store for Seattle (oh, and Washington too, if anyone’s scared of that).
Should the Seahawks attain a 5-3 road record or better against that schedule next year, it will truly be well-earned – but given the toughness of the 49ers, it may require Seattle to go undefeated at home to win the division.
#5. Because we secretly want Richard Sherman to go on an angry rant about us being haters.
We can see it now. “SidelineMOB, don’t come at me with that sorry-ass article! Now we’re gonna repeat out of spite to make you look stupid, baby!”
And if you don’t think we’d trade looking stupid for great publicity… well, you overestimate our sense of pride.